The Reach - Podcasting and other Portable Media Strategies

One of my favorite debates comes front and center in a New York Times article written by Matt Richtel today, which initially focuses on the wave of wi-fi enabled phones.  Belkin has a new wi-fi phone out and T-Mobile as announced a trial in Seattle where their wi-fi enabled phones will switch out between cell coverage and wi-fi coverage as needed to extend coverage areas, particularly in hard-to-reach areas such as homes and businesses.

At the heart of this new wave of coverage extension lies the question of switching between wi-fi networks.  In the case mentioned at the beginning of the article, a reporter tests the Belkin on the front lawn of a New York Times employee, essentially “stealing” his bandwidth.  Didn’t even leave a quarter on the front steps out of courtesy.   

I’m a big fan of using bandwidth I’ve paid for.  Others don’t seem to mind and use the argument “whoever setup the wi-fi router didn’t configure security to be enabled, so they must have been ok with me using it” or something like that.  That argument and others like it are not taking into account the ease of installation of one of those devices and ignorance of the need to set it up.  Do-it-yourself technology is great in one way, but it creates a lot of neophite adopters in the process - and unfortunately the more sophisticated seem to take advantage of disparity in the knowledge delta.

Very timely and interesting research from eMarketer today - DVD was obviously the first uptick in non-primetime viewing of primetime shows - go into any Blockbuster in the US and you’ll find increasing shelf space dedicated to TV.

But, the growth in online downloads of shows is dramatic and ID’s the future.  As with many things, Blockbuster and Netflix will have only temporary rule here of the off-TV viewing of TV shows. iTunes has 67% market share of downloads - shouldn’t Blockbuster or Netflix have been there?  Missed opportunity in a big way.

Steve Gillmor grabs a great post title today. Great writing too. The landscape is changing fast, even for someone who embraces change as easily as I. I remember hearing the word “disruptive technology” for the first time about 7 years ago, when Nortel had a “Disruptive Technology Group” (before they got laid off, I’m sure). I think we are all experiencing this to a great degree, maybe now more than anytime since the www first broke into our lives.

Both exciting and dangerous, in terms of business planning, eh? Let’s keep pushing forward and get some traction together in this mud. 

The US Wall Street Journal Online has an article today (subscription required) on audio and video search tools that are now coming into focus.  The proliferation of audio and video on the web, combined with the hope for becoming the next “Google” has thrust Podzinger, Blinkx, and TVEyes into the spolight, much to the delight of their PR teams.

Podzinger partnered with BBN Technologies of Cambridge, MA to bring their product to market. 

This is a market that has a pretty huge barrier to entry, considering the technical complexity - so, assuming they are able to satisfy advertisers with results, these companies that hope to become the new “Google” very well could.  The article mentions that Blinkx states that there is about 60% accuracy on amateur voices and near 100% on professional voices.

This proves to be an interesting space to watch - keep your eyes open, but don’t expect the original Google to sit back and watch.

Engadget reports today that last night, RIM announced the initial release of the their first truly consumer model, the Blackberry Pearl, or the 8100 in geek speak.  Hoping to snag one of these to demo at a conference at which I’m speaking later this month.  Expect to see in on the shelves or in backorder mode as early as September 12!

This model includes a camera, MP3 and MP4 play capability and other nice things.  That’s why you might see a long line…..

Good news and bad news for OLPC (the One Laptop Per Child program) and Nicholas Negroponte. First, the good news (for OLPC) - Nigeria has placed the first order for 1 million units. Or have they? Other countries reported to be “in the pipeline” are Brazil, Argentina, and Thailand.

The bad news - India not only says “no” but, “NO!” with extreme prejudice.

As I’ve written before, it takes a pretty literate person to use a computer and many people around the world can’t, don’t or won’t read.

We should promote literacy - it helps to assert the people groups in their trade with other people groups or countries and therefore provides economic development. But, can we expect one program to solve the world’s educational issues? In my opinion, much like India, I believe there are greater fundamental issues to be resolved first. I would hate to see Nigeria spend $100 million on a program that doesn’t get results. I think many wonder why invest $100MM in computers when you could do more long lasting good with some permanent programs.

Has anyone figured out the customer support model for these? What happens when one breaks? What’s the warranty on the product?

Granted, I haven’t met Nicholas and had the opportunity to ask the questions. But, this could be a very expensive process. Let’s not make it an expensive one for the very children we’re trying to reach! Even if these devices are considered a toy, when one breaks, the child is going to be broken hearted when the person that gave him/her one says - there are no more left.

So, you say, quit criticizing and offer a solution? OK - here’s what I recommend: Understand the current methods these children currently learn by. Fund more of those methods. If they’re literate and can effectively benefit for years by having one of these devices, by all means, give them one! If they’re from an Oral culture, then find another means to raise their education level, using Oral Learning methods. Let’s nurture and help grow what is there naturally - not pretend that we understand who they are when we generally will not.

Ok. I’m off my soapbox for a little while. Thanks for tuning in.

Saturday, July 29, the NY Times had an interesting article that generated some buzz. You might look at the title of this post and wonder the connection between the three. Well, let me explain. There has been a lot of discussion both here and other blogs, articles, etc. regarding phones as media players. As a matter of fact, as many of you may know, I believe it will ultimately replace the autonomous mp3/mp3 player market.

3G wireless systems have been the buzz in the U.S. for 6 years or more. Will WI-FI or WIMAX over mobile handsets make 3G irrelevant? In the short term, probably not. In the long term? Maybe so. By demanding access to multi-media files on the handsets, consumers will definitely be pressing for this ability. I don’t think 3G has the download speeds to satisfy over the long haul.

As podcasting becomes more mainstream, this too will increase demand from consumers for true broadband (1.5 MBps download speeds) over their wireless systems that support their phone calls. I believe the downloads/portability drives this, rather than “streaming live” in the short term - in that too many things have to be perfect to support that. I can’t always get a perfect live streaming experience over a wired broadband connection today - I think the frustrations would be disastrous in today’s U.S wireless market.

That being said, Japan has been watching live video on their cell phones for 6 or 7 years now. South Korea appears to have at least 1 million receivers (as of June 2006) that have been sold to utilize a system that allows this.

Everyone is trying to get everyone else to adopt their standard. Standardization gets to be a problem when pride gets in our way. On top of that, we have business models that “guaranteed” a certain return to investors - they’re not going to be happy about watching that change. That is a macro discussion that will affect Wi-FI, podcasting, and phones. If the current wireless carriers push the consumers to accept less speed for downloads by lobbying against WI-FI or WIMAX adoption, then the consumer will suffer and the related adoption of media downloads of all types to phones will be delayed. Hmm. Big potential problem, don’t you think?

Nielsen/NetRatings gets us excited with a report showing robust growth in podcasting and then qualifies it in subsequent conversations when asked questions by, well, people who can ask questions. The right ones, that is.  Frank Barnako pops the balloon here.  Many interested parties are incredulous, such as Robert Scoble.  I, on the other hand, think the report shows such a high degree of fascination with podcasting and therefore the need for speed in releasing the report that a lot of approvals got rushed.  Facts didn’t get checked, appropriate comparisons were not made.  I know none of us have ever made mistakes like that. 

Let’s look past the obvious errors, though and consider what makes a report like this hit the streets a review or two early.  Something is going on in podcasting and everyone knows it - even Nielsen/NetRatings.

“The gloves come off”, as we would say here in the U.S - in other words, a fight has begun.  Competing specifications for content syndication, long thought a dead issue, have been revived by this post from DeWitt Clinton and response by Robert Scoble.  DeWitt then follows up with another response, for a good ongoing discussion.

Atom may be a better specification - I’m not an engineer, so I can’t comment intelligently on it from that point of view.  But, from a marketing perspective, let me say this:

Sony’s Betamax was a better technology than JVC’s VHS.  Does anyone remember that battle?

I’m not claiming to be prophetic here.  I’m just noticing that buzz and adoption of RSS has swamped Atom.  Is that a guarantee of widespread adoption?  It could be - only time will tell.  I’d be wary of basing my business decisions only on the fact that Atom is a better specification, though.